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Real Estate: Local Realtors Explain Home Sale Bottlenecks in the City of Falls Church

Real Estate: Local Realtors Explain Home Sale Bottlenecks in the City of Falls Church
How was the City of Falls Church's home sale market at the end of last year? Redfin listing for home at 2852 Monroe St., Falls Church. Courtesy Redfin, Bright MLS.

Puzzled by some of the recent home sale numbers for the City of Falls Church?

We wanted to know why 2024 year-end home sale statistics for the City of Falls Church were so strikingly different from other local jurisdictions as reported on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for Realtors. 

To find out, The Falls Church Independent interviewed two seasoned local realtors – Kelly Millspaugh Thompson, Realtor with eXp Realty and owner of Stylish Patina at 248 W. Broad St., and Lisa DuBois, principal at The Chrissy and Lisa Team at 710 West Broad St., and associate broker of Remax Distinctive. 

The puzzlement began Jan. 10 when Urban Turf reported Dec. 2024 year-end statistics from Bright MLS highlighting that home sales in the “region’s housing market” had increased by 26 percent compared year-over-year with Dec. 2023. 

“Buyer activity surged at the end of 2024, even though mortgage rates stayed in the high 6 percent range,” Urban Turf reported. “However, rates are roughly three-quarters of a percentage point lower than they were a year ago," the MLS report stated, per Urban Turf.  "Buyers have adjusted their expectations and have started acclimating to the new normal for interest rates."

All this made sense. But then…

A Massive Outlier

Urban Turf presented the following jurisdictional breakdown from Bright MLS showing the City of Falls Church as a massive outlier in the year-over-year comparison of home sales:

Courtesy Urban Turf, Bright MLS.

“Almost every jurisdiction, except Falls Church [emphasis added], saw an increase in sales,” Bright MLS reported, according to Urban Turf. “Fairfax (+35 percent), Loudoun (+28 percent) and Montgomery (+28 percent) saw some of the largest increases; D.C. experienced a 20 percent increase in sales. The momentum came even as median prices around the region rose 6 percent to just under $600,000.”

"While the increase in sales was welcome news for the housing market, there remain obstacles to the momentum continuing," the Bright MLS report stated, according to Urban Turf.  "As we move into 2025, there is significant pent-up demand in the Washington D.C. metro area housing market, but there are also headwinds. Inventory is likely to remain low across the region and affordability is a major constraint for many buyers. There is also uncertainty around Federal government employment in the region, which will be important to watch in the month ahead."

But the nagging question is why the City of Falls Church sticks out like a sore thumb. 

While all the other regional jurisdictions saw high increases in home sales between Dec. 2023 and Dec. 2024, only the City of Falls Church had a decrease, and it appears massive, at 44 percent. So what gives?

Kelly Millspaugh Thompson, Realtor, eXp Realty, Owner, Stylish Patina

Having been “born and raised” in Falls Church City, Thompson has almost an instinctual sense of the City’s home sales market. “Falls Church is like my heart and soul,” she said. “Being a native and growing up here and having a business here and selling real estate here, I just really love Falls Church City.”

Kelly Millspaugh Thompson. Courtesy Zillow.

To explain why the City of Falls Church’s home sale numbers might have dropped so precipitously while other jurisdictions have climbed so much, Thompson highlighted why one ought not to be fooled by the statistics. In such a small jurisdiction as The Little City, a shift of just a few homes sold per-month can have an outsized impact on the percentage of homes sold.

“I think the number-one thing probably driving that statistic is the fact that Falls Church City is very small, right? So, we’re only looking at a little over two square-miles of homes… So, we’re talking about just 5 sales versus 44 percent more last December, which would only be a difference of maybe 8 or 9 sales, right?”

Another factor affecting the Bright MLS stats could also be the number of home purchases in the City that were not listed on MLS, Thompson said. “Something else could be impacting that statistic,” she suggested. “Falls Church City has some of the older homes actually selling off-market because they’re going to developers” to be torn down for new home builds. “So there may actually have been additional homes that sold but it didn’t calculate into the MLS [statistics].... So if we’re looking at the difference of 3 or 4 homes, that could be the 3 or 4 homes” driving the 44 percent decrease. 

Thompson also pointed out the vastly different scale of home markets in the other regions examined besides the City of Falls Church, where thousands more homes are in the mix. “When you have only so many homes within 2.2 square-miles it’s quite different than having 35 square-miles worth of homes to sell,” she said.

So, just because it looks like Dec. 2024 saw a huge drop in Falls Church City’s home sales, doesn’t mean demand isn’t soaring for homes in the Little City. 

In fact, the City’s home sales might just be a victim of the City’s own success in terms of desirability and livability, Thompson suggested. In the City of Falls Church, homes sell fast for good reason. “We know they sell quickly; I mean, very quickly,” Thompson said. “Anything in Falls Church City pretty much sells within the first weekend, if it doesn’t sell off-market before it even hits.”

But Thompson agrees with one factor cited in the Bright MLS report. High interest rates today have spurred many City homeowners to wait for interest rates to drop before they put their homes on the market, especially with the rise in local home prices. “If you think about it, if you’ve got a home that you bought 5 years ago for $750k at a 2 percent rate, but now you need a home that costs $1.5 million at a 7 percent rate, maybe financially you can’t do that. And if you want to stay in your school district and you want your kids to stay in the school district, then, ‘Guess what? I’m just going to stay in my smaller house and not sell it and maybe add on to my smaller house.’ 

So, how would Thompson describe the current home realty landscape for the City of Falls Church?

“Extremely competitive,” she said without hesitation. “I think there’s a lot of money within the City – which is great – and we’re building more homes and we’re adding in additional apartments, like we’ve got the Broad & Washington development going in…. So I think that the landscape is strong. If you’re in Falls Church City and you own a home, you’re in great shape, no matter whether you’re in Winter Hill or you have a condo, or you’ve bought a new build. But it’s harder to get in for two reasons. One is, the price point is difficult. And even if you find a home on the lower end, you’re going to pay a lot more for it in Falls Church City than you would in Falls Church, Fairfax County, you know, because of the school system.”

Comparing recent development in the City of Falls Church to those in North Arlington in the previous year, Thompson said, “Because of the school rating, the walkability – now that we’ve got some really nice walkability going on – we’re getting a little bit more of the food scene and that kind of stuff, more restaurants are coming in, and there’s more to do in Falls Church. Being raised here, it was like a very slow evolution in Falls Church City. We saw things happen in North Arlington, down in Clarendon. We saw things move into Ballston. And we were just kind of wondering, ‘Well, when’s it going to happen here?’ But now, I think we’re in it. It’s happening…. But, you have to pay for it to get in.”

Lisa DuBois, Principal of The Chrissy and Lisa Team, Associate Broker, Remax Distinctive

How long has DuBois been involved in local real estate? “I just started my 20th year,” she said. A resident of Lake Barcroft, she’s lived in the D.C. Metro region for 25 years. According to her work bio, “her attention to detail and negotiation skills have contributed to her stellar success. She serves on multiple professional real estate committees and was featured on HGTV for a segment on “My First Sale.” 

Lisa DuBois. Courtesy The Chrissy and Lisa Team.

While 2024 saw “the lowest number of [home] sales that could possibly happen,” due to potential sellers waiting for interest rates to drop, DuBois predicts that “eventually households are going to hit a point where they either have more kids, divorce, death, or what have you,” that compels them to “shake loose and sell their house.” 

DuBois also pointed out that condo sales in Dec. 2024 rather than detached home sales might account for why Arlington’s figures were so much higher than Falls Church City’s. And DuBois agrees with Thompson that Falls Church City’s 44 percent-drop figure for Dec. 2024 home sales should not be over-interpreted because “the numbers are so small that when you do see an increase it’s not truly a big jump” and the “geographical range of Falls Church City is not large, so you’re not going to see a lot of inventory anyway.”

DuBois also agrees that the “biggest factor” behind the drop in Falls Church City’s home sales in Dec. 2024 has been potential sellers not putting their homes on the market because they’re “holding on” to the lower interest rates they secured earlier. “So many people bought [their homes], before about two years ago, when rates were at 3 percent and below – artificially low in many instances – that they’re just trying to ride it out as long as they can because the payment difference is gigantic.”

Of course, seasonality also makes a big difference, both Realtors agreed. Few people tend to list or sell their homes in December.

One area where DuBois and Thomson disagree concerns how much of an impact the change in presidential administrations might have had on local home sales. While Thompson suggested potential sellers always tend to be risk-averse during a change of administrations, DuBois countered. “That doesn’t really have a whole lot of play. It really doesn’t. People say that all the time. I mean, it’s more the rental market [that’s influenced by that calculation] than anything else.” 

But both DuBois and Thompson certainly agree that while the Falls Church City home realty market might be experiencing bottlenecks right now, it’s enormously appealing to homebuyers.

“The real estate in Falls Church City is sought after for the walkability and the school pyramid. That continues to drive the demand and the pricing," DuBois said. "You see people who have school-age kids want to live here, you see down-sizers want to live here because they want the walkability. I mean, it really has an excellent mix…. Falls Church offers so much to just about anybody in the market. It is a location of demand for anybody looking. From first-time homebuyers through retirement.” 


By Christopher Jones